When we consider the consequences of Covid-19, the Spanish Flu of 1918 is the pandemic that scares us the most. The Spanish Flu was deadly, particularly when it returned for a second time in the fall of 1918. The mortality age-pattern was highly unusual, with deaths in many countries peaking around age 28. (This earlier post discusses the more typical age pattern of influenza mortality observed in recent decades.)

Novel diseases are likely to be most risky for specific ages and sexes. The challenges posed by Covid19 are playing out at this time on the global stage. Demography tells us where this, and other novel diseases, are likely to have a big impact – because any country’s demography tells us the ages and sexes of the people there. Children would bear the brunt of anything resembling a childhood infectious disease.

(Note: this post was updated on March 18. A age-specific comparison of flu mortality with all cause mortality was added in the addendum below.) The exact age-pattern of the Covid-19 pandemic is still emerging, with older people clearly at more risk than younger. Meanwhile, the pattern of deaths attributed to influenza in past years can give us a point of comparison. This time may be different. But different from what?

Welcome to “demogblog.” We’ve started this in order to share our work related to demography in general, and especially demographic perspectives on the COVID-19 pandemic. Please contact us if you have material to contribute.