S4 - Stochastic Social Security Simulator


The simulation has recently been updated to 2001. Click Here for more information.

This is a stochastic simulation of the Social Security Trust Fund over time, starting with the known balance at the end of calendar year 2001, and ending in 2101. You may adjust various input parameters, such as the tax rate, the Normal Retirement Age, or equities investments. Click on the parameter link for a description of its function.

To start the simulation, click on the "Submit" button below. You may go directly to the OUTPUT PAGE if you have already generated a simulation, and you know the ID. To see a list of previously run simulations, click here.

Basic settings

Enter a unique, 6-8 character ID to identify your simulation run:

Optional description of run:

Number of trajectories:

Re-sample the input trajectories randomly:

Payroll Tax Rate:

Plotting endpoint:

Use deterministic (SSA intermediate) population forecasts:

Use deterministic (SSA intermediate) interest rate forecasts:

Use deterministic (SSA intermediate) productivity rate forecasts:

Use deterministic equities returns (7% real):

Equities investment parameters

Initial percentage of fund to invest in equities:

Year to begin investing in equities:

Long-run percentage of fund invested in equities:

Year after which investment in equities is constant:

Retirement Age parameters

Long-run Normal Retirement Age (NRA):

Number of years for each year of NRA phase-in:

Year in which second NRA phase-in begins:

Year in which third NRA phase-in begins:

Year in which fourth NRA phase-in begins:

Percentage decrease in the hazard rate of retirement at age 62:

Percentage of those postponing retirement at 62 who roll over to DI:

After clicking on "Submit", wait about 4-5 seconds per trajectory. Then click here to go to the OUTPUT PAGE. You may go directly to the output page if you have already generated a simulation, and you know the ID.

A 'Simulation completed' message should appear in the bottom window when the simulation is done, unless the connection times out. If the connection gets timed out, you can still go to the output page later for your results, after waiting an appropriate amount of time. You can click here for a list of previously run simulations, or to see if your run has completed yet.

Please send feedback to mikeand@boalthall.berkeley.edu.